ABS Policy Paper No. 40

The full version of the paper – including graphics – is attached, please click the PDF Icon.

• Paper adapted by Alexander Christiani

The 21st century has witnessed a significant epochal shift in the geopolitical and economic prominence of global regions.

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new global center of gravity.  This realignment carries significant implications for Europe. Consequently, Europe faces novel strategic challenges in adapting to a geopolitical environment increasingly shaped by actors and dynamics situated far beyond its traditional spheres of influence. Europe’s second-most critical maritime route extends through the Suez Canal, traverses the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, continues around the Indian subcontinent, and passes through the strategically crucial Strait of Malacca, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea.

The Rise and Decline of Global Powers

The first quarter of the 21st century has witnessed significant transformations within global power dynamics, characterized particularly by the remarkable ascent of China.

• China’s rise from a developing nation to a formidable global power across economic, political, technological, and military dimensions has reshaped international relations profoundly. Today, China ranks as the world’s second-largest power, with an explicit strategic ambition to assume global primacy by mid-century.
• S. Decline as the Absolute Global Leader:The United States has ceased to be the unequivocally dominant global leader it became after the end of the Cold War. This relative decline can primarily be attributed to factors such as political, financial, and military overstretch, coupled with a significant reduction in traditional industrial productivity. Furthermore, the persistent imbalance in U.S.-China trade relations underscores this weakened position, with U.S. imports from China exceeding its exports by a factor of approximately 3.5.

• Europe, considering its economic scale, highly developed human capital, and elevated living standards—even post Brexit—retains substantial potential to rank among the top three global powers. This potential, however, hinges on Europe’s capacity to formulate and execute cohesive foreign, security, and defense policies akin to those of a sovereign nation-state.

New American Politics Led by President Trump

The geopolitical doctrine advanced by President Trump revolves around several strategic objectives designed to reinforce the United States‘ global primacy:

• Ensuring that the United States maintains sufficient power to preserve its status as the global
• Prioritizing containment of China, identified as the primary geopolitical challenger, by deliberately impeding China’s economic growth and technological advancement.
• Preventing the formation of a permanent strategic alliance between China—the world’s second-largest power—and Russia, currently the third largest, thereby denying China access to Russia’s abundant energy and mineral resources, as well as its vast territorial expanse, which could mitigate China’s strategic maritime vulnerabilities.
• Trump’s foreign and security strategy explicitly emphasizes national interests over ideological or normative considerations, consistently aligned with the principle of “America First.” However, this strategy transcends his rhetorical slogan of “Make America Great Again,” manifesting instead through a policy approach characterized by assertive demonstrations of military and economic strength and marked by a clear disregard for international institutions and established norms.

Special Case: Israel and the Middle East

Trump’s foreign policy demonstrates a distinctive interest in the Middle East, extending beyond the traditional U.S. alliance with Israel. Building upon initiatives begun during his first presidential term, Trump has pursued deeper engagement with the energy-rich and financially influential Gulf states, notably through diplomatic efforts aimed at normalizing Israeli-Arab relations, exemplified by the Abraham Accords.

U.S.-Russia Relations

Trump’s relationship with Russia, on the other hand, has been driven primarily by the strategic imperative of preventing a durable Sino-Russian alliance.

In practice, this has manifested through Trump’s partial adoption of Russia’s narrative regarding the war in Ukraine, diverging significantly from traditional U.S. policy. Consequently, this stance has risked profound diplomatic estrangement from Ukraine and substantially deteriorated relations with European allies.

For Europe specifically, it is crucial to recognize that without active U.S. involvement, normalizing relations with Russia would prove exceedingly difficult. Given Russia’s geographic proximity, size, and economic potential, Russia represents not only a critical security challenge but also an indispensable economic neighbouring partner for the European Union.

Trump’s Approach to U.S. Foreign Policy

President Trump’s approach to foreign policy has been characterized by a distinctly unilateral projection of American power, marked by a deliberate disregard for traditional diplomatic norms and obligations deriving from membership in international institutions and alliances—many of which were originally established under U.S. leadership.

In clear contrast, President Trump has consistently demonstrated an overt disregard—and at times personal contempt—for consensus building among traditional allies, as well as obligations arising from membership in international organizations and intergovernmental agreements. His administration has displayed minimal respect for democratic institutions and processes, engaged directly and aggressively in markets by imposing tariffs on neighbouring countries, strategic allies, and geopolitical rivals alike, and embraced state interventions at a scale unprecedented in modern American history.

Under his presidency, the United States has notably distanced itself from multilateral institutions and agreements: it has disregarded decisions by the United Nations, undermined the authority of the World Trade Organization (partly continuing trends begun by predecessors), withdrawn from the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Agreement, drastically reduced foreign aid programs, and seriously challenged the coherence and functionality of NATO, historically the world’s strongest military alliance

A Turning Point in US-EU Relations

Vice President Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, from which many Europeans had anticipated reassuring signals or at least a moderation of President Trump’s confrontational stance, instead revealed the profound divide between the United States and European nations. This divergences especially significant regarding the critical issue of European security, notably how to resolve the Ukrainian conflict positively and sustain the vital transatlantic partnership on equitable terms rather than as a hierarchical relationship in which Europe remains merely a junior partner.

Dependency on an increasingly unpredictable partner: Europe must emerge as an independent geopolitical actor, possessing autonomous capabilities and instruments. Europe must be capable of self-defense and develop sufficient deterrent capabilities . Currently, Europe’s political landscape is notably fragmented and vulnerable:

• The United Kingdom, having exited the European Union, has yet to establish a coherent or effective post-Brexit policy approach. Although it remains active within NATO, the UK possesses diminished military capabilities.
• France maintains Europe’s strongest military forces, but suffers from chronic economic stagnation and severe budgetary constraints.
• Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has endured three consecutive years of recession, exacerbated by structural crises within its pivotal automotive industry.
• By contrast, political developments in Italy and particularly Poland have been comparatively positive. Under Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Poland has emerged as a European leader in defence spending, allocating approximately 4.7% of its GDP to military expenditures and adopting an unequivocal stance against Russian aggression.

An European Security Initiative

It must develop in parallel, complementing existing transatlantic structures. Europe must also recognize that, ultimately, it will bear primary responsibility for its continental security and defence.

Overcoming the Challenges of the Trump Administration necessitates that Europe develops a robust, long-term strategic approach to its transatlantic relations, rather than merely relying on short-term tactical adjustments. This strategic imperative motivates his explicit encouragement of increased European defence capabilities, primarily to enable the United States to concentrate its military resources on countering China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific region. Europe’s response must therefore aim at genuine strategic autonomy, recognizing both the constraints imposed by continued reliance on the U.S. and the opportunities provided by an increasingly multipolar international order.

The emergence of a stronger European presence on the global stage—one comparable in strategic stature to the United States, China, Russia, and prospectively India—has become an absolute necessity in an era increasingly dominated by great power competition and clearly delineated spheres of influence. Realistically, the development of substantial European power capabilities and the political determination necessary to achieve genuine global-actor status can only be realized through a coalition of willing and capable European nations, centred around the established political format of the „Weimar Triangle“ (Germany, France, and Poland).

Europe thus stands at a pivotal juncture: it must make a strategic choice either to ascend decisively as a global actor or to accept a subordinate position, becoming merely an appendage or passive subject within the strategic designs of other major global powers. Proposals for

European Security and Economic Perspectives :

To effectively navigate the geopolitical uncertainties resulting from shifts in U.S. policy under President Trump, the European Union and its member states must take proactive and coordinated steps to safeguard their strategic interests and autonomy:

• The most immediate priority is establishing a coalition of willing European states committed to providing sustained political, economic, and military support to Ukraine, thereby facilitating conditions for a stable and sustainable ceasefire.
• Strategically essential is the establishment of a core group tasked with planning, developing, and implementing an autonomous European military capability capable of effectively countering conventional aggression, particularly from Russia. This coalition should initially include the “Weimar Triangle” (France, Germany, Poland), supplemented by the European Commission, potentially the United Kingdom, and approximately five additional EU member states with sufficient political will and resources.
• By the end of 2025, this strategic planning group should establish a clear catalogue of measures along with a detailed implementation timeline aimed at creating unified European armed forces. These measures should specifically include: The formation of a European Security Council as a central coordinating body for EU security policy. The establishment of an EU operational headquarters for command and control of joint military operations.
• The establishment of a unified and integrated European armament market to ensure strategic autonomy and efficiency in procurement. The planning of substantial European maritime capabilities capable of securing Europe’s vital trade and communication routes, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Enhancing interoperability and strategic coherence of European military capabilities in close coordination with NATO.
• Examining and developing proposals regarding the feasibility and implications of a European nuclear deterrent.
• Actively supporting the sovereignty and independence of Central Asian nations to prevent excessive Chinese or Russian influence in that region.
• Establishing a European Contact Group responsible for shaping future relations between the European Union, the United States, and Russia, fostering dialogue and preventing further geopolitical fragmentation.
• Initiating a permanent European-Turkish security forum, tasked with addressing common security concerns and identifying areas of cooperation despite existing political divergences.
• Strengthening Europe’s global credibility as a representative of core Western values such as democracy, market economies, free trade, and the rule-based international order, while avoiding perceptions of moralizing or imposing ideological values.
• Formulating a coherent strategy to fill the institutional gaps left by recent U.S. withdrawals, particularly within global institutions where U.S. participation has been curtailed or terminated.
• Reforming European foreign aid, shifting its emphasis from predominantly humanitarian relief toward strategic investments in infrastructure and education across the Global South, thereby enhancing Europe’s ability to compete effectively with China’s global initiatives. This shift would visibly position Europe as a primary contributor to global development and stability.
• Increasing diplomatic and intellectual exchanges with U.S. think tanks, particularly conservative institutions and legislators, to maintain a resilient transatlantic partnership founded upon enduring common interests and shared strategic visions.
• Finally, fostering a robust European political consensus and sustained political will to act is essential to ensure Europe’s effective transformation into a coherent and influential global geopolitical actor capable of successfully navigating the multipolar international order of the 21st century.